“He may certainly have forgotten”: the processing of nested epistemic expressions
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This study explores the interpretation of nested epistemic expressions by focusing on interlocutors’ knowledge of epistemic strength (the degree of probability) and the effects of order of embedding (scope). Our findings suggest that people generally interpret nested epistemic modals as expressions of intermediate degree of certainty, which is different from the epistemic strength of the two component modals. Moreover, changes in word order do not seem to change people’s interpretation of the epistemic strength of the expression, which fails to support the scope account of the semantics of nested epistemic expressions. The above pattern holds true whether or not the two modals are separated in the string, and this result is inconsistent with the idea that the first modal would have a larger effect on interpretation of the second due to having been represented longer in memory. This study sets the stage for future investigations of the interpretation of nested epistemic expressions, including semantic aspects other than likelihood, and sets the stage for the use of eye-tracking measures to examine how the order of the two modals and the distance between them affect online processing and interpretation.